As what many would term a ‘leftist’ (a sort of liberal
anarcho-Marxist to be precise) I’ve usually voted Labour, but the Greens are my
party of choice. However, the Green party is skewered by the electoral system. What about the Liberal Democrats? Although they have received my vote in the past, I doubted they ever would again. But politics changes rapidly and I wouldn’t use the past, even the recent past, as
too much of a guide either to present choices or to the future. We’re currently
in the greatest crisis for nearly a century and anything can happen: Brexit and
Trump make everything unpredictable. The Liberal Democrats currently seem to be a potentially far more viable political force than Labour.
Labour are finished,
for the foreseeable future at least. They’re fundamentally confused in the Brexit
debate (the issue that is likely to dominate politics for a long time to come),
and they are unable to cope with the sort of social, cultural and demographic
changes that are occurring. Their demise in Scotland foreshadows what is likely
to be their demise throughout many formerly ‘traditional’ Labour areas in
England and Wales. Beset by endless internal turmoil and lacking a coherent vision of how to meet the current challenges, they will fail to capture the essential centre ground.
The centre ground is this: it’s that social and cultural
area inhabited by those who are outward-looking, progressive, tolerant and
liberal. It’s the area that stands most firmly within the tradition of the
Enlightenment. Around the centre ground is the unholy alliance of the inward-looking,
reactionary, intolerant and illiberal mob and a self-serving portion of the
wealthy. Trump’s presidency perfectly captures this alliance: a cabinet of
millionaires elected in large part on the back of an angry, narrow-minded, poorly educated, white, male precariat. It’s a fundamental divide between the centre and the
illiberal (and unenlightened) perimeter that won’t be solved for a generation—we’ll
probably have to wait for today’s young generation to sort out the mess. Among the few hopeful signs in the current situation is the energy, humour and youthfulness of the protests against Trump and Brexit. That needs to be retained and nurtured, for it will be the basis for creative solutions and a new politics in the future.
Meanwhile there’s going to be ongoing cultural war, social instability, and
furious battles (the current battle between Trump and the US constitution is a taste
of what’s to come; similarly the tabloid and populist response to the legal
case over Article 50). Actual war is not inconceivable: authoritarian and
populist regimes have often resorted to war to bolster their credibility,
legitimacy and support. The priority (and about the best those of us who are
progressive can hope for) is to keep alive the tradition of liberalism,
tolerance and rationalism, and to ensure that there is something to leave
behind to the next generation.
As for party politics: I suspect there will be a seismic shift to
reflect the new realities of our times. The Liberal Democrats are best placed as a focal point for
the centre ground. If they can overcome their poor electoral shape, and build a
broader centre-left support, then they’ll have a chance of being a major
factor. When it comes to voting, I’m all for whoever can most advance the liberal,
progressive agenda. The Liberal Democrats are currently the best bet. I’d love to think
that the Greens may be a factor too.
The Tories appear well placed. But it’s an illusion.
Brexit causes them as many problems as it does Labour. (Only the Liberal Democrats and
Greens have a coherent and relatively united position on Brexit.) Theresa May
is threatened on the right and left, and I can’t see any way that she’ll be
able to reconcile all the competing views in her party once negotiations begin. So far her strategy has been to throw a few bones for the right to chew on in order to keep them quiet. But in the long run, she knows that either the hard right are going to be disappointed, or, if they are not, everyone else will be disappointed. Her position could collapse quite rapidly.
Brexit is a nightmare, and my guess
is that it will rip apart party politics as we know it over the next few years.
It’s not the same political game that it was even just two or three years ago. In this new game, the Liberal Democrats are likely to play a key role.
